Calculating Aaron Judge’s Mega Free Agent Contract Value

Give it to Aaron Judge: the man bet on himself and will reap the rewards this off-season when he becomes a free agent. How much he will get is part analysis and part bidding war.

Judge is likely to win the American League MVP. He’s set to pass Roger Maris’ single-season home run total of 61, maybe before the week is up. He has already tied Babe Ruth and is currently one of just six players that have hit the lofty 60 home run milestone. The last guys to do it? Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa in the PED-infused 2001 season. He is a staggering 20 home runs ahead of second-place Kyle Schwarber.

On top of the staggering home run numbers, he is the American League triple crown leader (.316/60/128) and is 14 points off his batting average from being the league triple crown leader (Freddie Freeman leads the league with a .330 average). Beyond the triple crown, he ranks #1 in the league by SLG (.703), OPS (1.123), OPS+ (214), OBP (.419), total bases (372), runs (123), XBH (87), and the all-important WAR (9.7).

With such gaudy numbers, his payday will be one of the highest of all time. But by what measure?

As noted, Judge bet on himself by turning down a seven-year, $213.5 million extension offered to him by the Yankees in Spring Training this year. According to Jon Heyman of the NY Post, he countered with an offer at nine or 10 years at $36 million AAV for up to $360 million.

That was before he went on this 2022 tear; his value has gone up further still.

If there is one downside to Judge’s free agent contract it’s his age: he will be 31 in April of 2023. That factors into how he could rank in terms of total contract pay.

Mike Trout’s 12-year $426.5 million contract is currently the highest total value in MLB history. It eclipses Mookie Betts at #2 (12 years, $365 million). Judge could possibly slip somewhere in the middle depending on the average annual value (AAV).

Odds are high that this will be Judge’s first and last free agent contract. A 12-year deal would be a gamble considering he’d be age 43 by the time it expired. A ten-year, $400 million deal with incentives would give him an AAV of $40 million which would rank him #2 by AAV behind only Max Scherzer ($43.333 million) and rank him #1 as a position player placing him ahead of Trout (AAV of $35,541,667).

Beyond his statistical elements, Judge also has intangibles that add icing to the cake. Given his current standing with the New York Yankees, he’s become a prominent marketing pitchman. Most recently he landed with SHOC Energy drink. His other endorsements range from adidas, Pepsi, and others.

So, could Judge land in the $400 million range? He’s bound to be there, or potentially higher. The bigger question will be, will he remain in Yankee pinstripes or go elsewhere? By turning down the extension during Spring Training it’s clear he’s going to field multiple bidders. Still, not since Derek Jeter has a player seemed to embody what it means to be a Yankee like Aaron Judge. We have just a few short months before free agency kicks off after the World Series. We’ll know soon enough.